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9 November 2002 |
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CAPE CANAVERAL -- NASA is making sweeping changes to its future space transportation plans in order to develop a crucial orbital lifeboat for the international space station. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration will ask Congress on Tuesday to move $2.3 billion from the search for a shuttle successor to development of a small, orbital space plane, upgrades to the shuttle fleet and funding for the station. The rare budget amendment would shift the money within the $4.8 billion Space Launch Initiative. The initiative -- conceived to foster a cheaper, safer next-generation launcher -- would be restructured to spend $882 million on the space plane. Once operational, the ship would end NASA's dependence on the Russians for a station escape craft and eventually might be used to ferry crew and cargo to the outpost. The space plane likely would ride to orbit on a Delta 4 or Atlas 5 booster until a new reusable launcher is built, possibly putting astronauts atop expendable U.S. rockets for the first time since 1975. The 21-year-old space shuttle will get $662 million in upgrades to continue flying well into the next decade. Near-term prospects for a reusable launcher to replace the shuttle appear dimmer than ever. "This clearly admits we are going to be flying the shuttle for longer than people had hoped -- other than shuttle people -- and that there is no pressing demand for a multibillion-dollar replacement vehicle," said John Logsdon, director of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute. A critical piece Until another crew-rescue ship is available, NASA and the station's other international partners have no alternative but to rely on the Russians. Their Soyuz capsules are needed by station residents to abandon ship in case of a catastrophe. "It's a critical piece to us," said Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA's international space station program manager. "Without the Russian Soyuz being there, we'd be in a posture where we couldn't keep our crews permanently onboard." A 1996 agreement between NASA and the Russian Aviation and Space Agency obligates Moscow to provide 11 Soyuz capsules for the station. The capsules are flown to the outpost and docked there by so-called taxi crews, then replaced every six months or so when their certified life in orbit ends. The final Soyuz taxi flight is scheduled for November 2005, with a return to Earth around May 2006. In recent months, however, the cash-strapped Russians have suggested they may not be able to keep their Soyuz commitments for 2003, much less 2005. U.S. station managers say they are confident Moscow will meet its obligations. Responsibility for a crew rescue ship shifts to the United States when the current agreement expires in 2006. But the earliest a U.S. rescue ship likely would be available is 2010. An earlier NASA effort to develop a lifeboat prototype, the X-38 program, was considered too costly and abandoned last spring. NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe has said his agency won't start paying for Soyuz missions. In fact, it's not certain NASA could buy the $65 million flights if it wanted to. The Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000 restricts cash payments to the Russians if they are found to be exporting weapons technology to Tehran. President Bush, who dubbed Iran part of an "axis of evil," would have to certify Russia was in compliance with the act for any money to change hands. That appears unlikely in light of recent Russian-Iranian dealings. Meanwhile, NASA has looked at more creative ways of helping Moscow. "We're going to work together with the Russians to figure out a way to keep Soyuzes until we get a rescue vehicle of our own," Gerstenmaier said. "We do have some things we could barter. How attractive they'll be to the Russians, I don't know." How bartering would help the Russians is unclear. They need cash, not bartered goods and services, to keep their assembly lines rolling. Still, most experts are optimistic something will get worked out. "It's a real concern," the Space Policy Institute's Logsdon said, "but it's obvious we're not going to abandon the station for four years. One way or another, there is going to be a solution." Jump-starting the effort The search for a longer-term solution has led to a radical restructuring of NASA's Space Launch Initiative, or SLI. NASA managers recently postponed a November SLI review that would have narrowed designs for the reusable launcher to two or three. NASA instead will ask Congress to reallocate $2.3 billion from the SLI during the next five years. The remaining SLI money would continue to be spent on developing advanced technologies. About $882 million would be shifted to space-plane development, $706 million to space-station reserve funds, $662 million to shuttle upgrades and $75 million to biology and physics research that would be carried to the station aboard the shuttle. The research increase would support five annual shuttle flights to the station instead of the current four. NASA officials revealed last week that a $4.8 billion projected budget overrun for the station had been eliminated and the program's books were balanced again. With the agency's financial house back in order, the proposed amendment to the 2003 budget would allow NASA to quickly jump-start the space-plane effort instead of waiting for the 2004 fiscal year to begin in October. The SLI changes are part of an ongoing reassessment of the agency's long-term transportation blueprint, known in NASA parlance as the Integrated Space Transportation Plan. A fleet of three or four space planes might be necessary to support the station. NASA managers have just begun to consider specific requirements for the ship, such as how many people it would carry. "The unknown here is 'What are NASA's requirements?' " said former astronaut Mike Coats, vice president of reusable space-transportation systems at Lockheed Martin. "How long do they want it on orbit? What kind of capability do they want in there? Do they want EVA [spacewalks] and that sort of thing? They have to define their requirements first, and they are still trying to do that." Back to the future Lockheed Martin and rival aerospace giant Boeing already have begun jockeying to build the proposed space plane and launch it on new rockets the companies have developed for the Air Force. Both manufacturers have conducted internal feasibility studies and are looking at how to make their boosters reliable enough for people. If NASA takes that step, Americans would be riding to orbit atop U.S.-made expendable boosters for the first time in more than a quarter-century. The idea of returning astronauts to U.S. expendable rockets is an old one. Catapulting a so-called space taxi to the station atop one of the newly developed boosters was a concept identified more than four years ago by NASA space-transportation studies. Similar designs already were part of the SLI competition. Former NASA Administrator Dan Goldin was opposed to putting people back on expendable rockets because of safety concerns. Current Administrator O'Keefe, however, reconsidered the idea. As a point of reference, the Russians have safely launched people on expendable rockets for more than 40 years. "We did, in fact, launch Mercury, Gemini and Apollo astronauts on ELVs [expendable launch vehicles]," Logsdon said. "Certainly, Dan Goldin didn't like that solution, but it's been around for a long time, and different people are now in charge." Boeing's new Delta 4 rocket is set to make its maiden flight next Saturday. A heavy-lift version of the Delta 4 also is under development and is scheduled to debut next year. Boeing managers say the heavy-lift Delta 4 could haul more than 50,000 pounds to the station. "We believe the Delta 4 heavy is an excellent candidate for any orbital space-plane program," said Jayne Schnaars, vicepresident of Boeing Launch Services. "Taking crew back and forth to station or even cargo back and forth is well within our capabilities." Lockheed Martin's Atlas 5 rocket already made a successful first flight Aug. 21. To fully support station missions, the company likely would have to move ahead with mothballed plans for its own heavy-lift version. What does it all mean? If NASA proceeds with the space plane as expected, development of a shuttle successor would be moved to the back burner, although some technology research will continue. NASA might be able to evacuate crews from the space station without relying on the Russians by 2010. The aging space shuttle could fly side by side with the space plane well into the next decade, despite ongoing concerns about cost. "This frees us from sole dependence on one system -- the shuttle -- to get people to and from space," Logsdon said. "And I guess it means we also accept the cost of operating the shuttle, which is very high." Michael Cabbage can be reached at mcabbage@orlandosentinel.com or 321-639-0522.
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