China's overall proficiency in space was strengthened by the Shenzhou 3 flight of a few months ago, said Dean Cheng, Research Analyst with Project Asia at The CNA Corporation in Washington, D.C.

Work is continuing apace on a heavy-lift booster, Cheng said, as well as maneuvering and telemetry-related technologies. China is beefing up mission control and global monitoring skills too. A host of related spin-offs are being realized due to Chinese work on fashioning a human space launch capacity, within the areas of miniaturization, materials, and the life sciences, he said.

Contrasted to America's first space travel corps, the Chinese counterparts to the U.S. "Mercury 7" are reportedly 14 in number. Out of this group, an even dozen candidates are apparently undergoing evaluation, from which two to three individuals are destined for a Shenzhou ride into orbit and back down to terra firma.

It's not clear where these "yuhangyuan", or astronauts, came from, Cheng said. Finding out what individuals were picked and from where may help pin down how the Chinese manned space program fits within the military realm, and whether it is affiliated with any particular branch of service, he said.

Putting humans atop rockets is always costly.

Cheng said that, presumably, other space projects would suffer as limited resources are increasingly given to a humans-in-space program. That gives rise to how China will prioritize its space exploration agenda. The proverbial human versus automated spacecraft battle lines are surely to be drawn, he said.

Marching orders to work on lunar technology are spelled out in China's Tenth Five-Year Plan (2001-2005), Cheng said. The so-called 863 program outlines key technology areas that receive massive state support. That suggests technology for Moon exploration is a national priority, he said.

"Given this national-level priority, and the level of technology already exhibited, the Chinese approach does not appear outlandish, nor even necessarily excessively optimistic," Cheng believes. Much of the fundamental theoretical work has already been accomplished. Lessons learned are easy pickings thanks to the highly publicized "space race" between the United States and the Soviet Union of decades past, he told SPACE.com.

"The idea of a Chinese manned lunar mission, therefore, moves from the exorbitant to the merely expensive," Cheng said.

One unknown factor is China's stance on space law and private investment on the Moon. Does it believe that the Moon constitutes a potential source of financial return on its investment? Or is it primarily interested in scientific and prestige aspects?

"The answer to this could have important implications for lunar development," Cheng said. "Particularly, if the U.S. were to reinvigorate its space program. But even more, if private corporations were to take the lead in such an effort," the China space analyst said.

In May, the state-controlled China Daily newspaper reported that an official of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Quyang Ziquan, said the country is mounting a lunar exploration program. "China is expected to complete its first exploration of the Moon in 2010, and will establish a base on the Moon as we did in the South Pole and the North Pole," Quyang was quoted as saying. He was also identified as chief scientist of China's Moon exploration program.

Saunders Kramer, a Maryland-based space consultant, suggests that mimicking an American Apollo-style Moon landing would not satisfy China.

In order to gather the prestige, Kramer bets that a first time Chinese crew would reside on the Moon for one to two weeks. Loads of supplies, shelter, and even a fully equipped backup Earth return vehicle might be planted on the Moon ahead of crew arrival.

"Such a mission is essentially an engineering mission…no basic science need be uncovered to accomplish it. All the materials, propellant, trajectory, research and results are in the available literature," Kramer said.

Still, China's space aspirations take Renminibi. Translated, that's Chinese legal tender meaning the People's Money.

Questions Kramer: "How urgently do they want to be the second nation to explore the Moon?"

"Their national pride in doing so would be unending. Imagine beating the Russians to the Moon and everyone else except the United States," Kramer said. The effort would demand big chunks of cash, but readily available literature carries tons of technical detail on how Apollo succeeded. Culling through documentation saves them both time and money, he said.

By stepping out to the Moon, said professor Johnson-Freese, China gets a huge boost in dual-use (civilian and military) technology. It did so for the United States thanks to the Apollo program.

Does that mean that China is moving forward with their manned space program for military space technology? Johnson-Freese says no. "They could develop that technology faster and cheaper if they didn’t have to mess with things like life support systems. But will a significant portion of that technology be of use to the military? Yes, it will," she said.

Any Chinese pilgrimage to the Moon in 2010 is seemingly doable, Johnson-Freese said. The restricting factor is money. But China can buy nearly anything they need, not spending time on a learning curve. "They have and will continue to benefit from what others have already done," she said.

Chinese boot marks implanted in the lunar surface could serve as a kick in the pants for the U.S. space program, Johnson-Freese senses. That would be especially true if China builds on the feat, rather than adopt America's "been there, done that" ho-hum approach, she said.

Johnson-Freese said that a Chinese Moon landing takes on added weight depending on another factor. What is the U.S. stance toward China at the time - one of engagement or threat?

It's time to welcome China into the inner councils of spacefaring countries, urged John Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. Furthermore, the U.S. should begin to work towards meaningful U.S.-Chinese space cooperation, he said.

"I am really a bit amazed by those who suggest that China putting people in space -- something the U.S. did more than three decades ago -- could serve as a catalyst for a new 'space race'," Logsdon said.

Logsdon said that the former Soviet Union did use space triumphs as a way to threaten U.S. global leadership. Accordingly, President John Kennedy responded to that challenge. Today, however, Chinese astronauts whisking about Earth should be seen as far from intimidating, he said.

Chinese lunar plans could be more pipe dream than possibility.

"China has been talking about putting people in space for more than a decade. It hasn't happened yet. So why give plausibility to a rapid achievement of a lunar mission?," Logsdon asks.

First of all, Logsdon observes, look at the state of China's economy. Consider its ambitions for regional military and political leadership. Then judge its desire to continue to develop for its people.

"It seems to me that the last thing that China is likely to do is invest in deep space missions," Logsdon said.

Indeed, recent news articles that outline Chinese space objectives are somewhat suspect, say other leading space authorities.

Nicholas Johnson, Chief Scientist and Program Manager for Orbital Debris at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas said that, personally, he felt the recent stories on Chinese space objectives lack any critical assessment.

"I do not dispute that long-term Chinese goals exist," Johnson said. However, talk about a near-term lunar landing by China "is completely incompatible with the level of Chinese actions and investments of the past ten years," he said.

"Could it be done, yes. Will it be done, highly unlikely," Johnson said.

Phillip Clark, noted China space expert in the United Kingdom, said an original Chinese article on that nation's future plans made no mention of human Moon landings. Rather, by 2010 they would start lunar exploration - no mention of propelling people moonward.

"Although I am sure that the Chinese plan to go to the Moon," Clark told SPACE.com, "I would expect that for the next decade or so they will concentrate on Earth orbit operations. They have talked about single-module space labs in a few years and then around 2010 something like Russia's Mir space station. So that will keep them quite busy."

Donning his guessing hat, Clark said that a Chinese manned lunar landing around 2020 seems about right. "Maybe it'll be 2019 to celebrate 50 years since Apollo 11 and tweak some American noses," he added.