Yorkshire CND - U.S. Undermining China's Security

24 December 2001
U.S. Undermining China's Security
Strategic Forecasting

http://freedomofpress.tripod.com/stratfor10.htm

Summary

The Chinese government Dec. 20 expressed disapproval over the recent decision by the United States to sell warships and armaments to Taiwan. The decision to give weapons to Taiwan is the most recent in a series of seemingly anti-China military decisions by Washington. The move will significantly increase the long-term level of distrust between the two world powers, sending a signal to China that the United States is unsympathetic to its security concerns.

Analysis

The U.S. House of Representatives Dec. 13 passed the 2002 Defense Authorization Act, which included the sale of four Kidd-class destroyers and 12 P-3C aircraft to Taiwan, as well as the promise to help the country obtain eight diesel-powered submarines. Beijing's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman told reporters Dec. 20 that the bill contains anti-China content and conflicts with Washington's official commitment to uphold the "one-China" policy.

The bill's passage follows a spate of recent U.S. defense decisions opposed by China. The Bush administration has made clear its intention to press ahead with its own military agenda despite concerns from Beijing. Although U.S. economic investment to China will not likely suffer as a result, long-term political relations between the two nations will deteriorate.

The defense package promised by the United States will establish Taiwan's ability to defend itself should China attack. Beijing has never renounced war as a means to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, and Taipei has repeatedly expressed its aims to maintain military balance with the mainland.

The four Kidd-class destroyers, originally intended for the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s, can operate defensively against submarines, are equipped with air-defense radar and can launch standard surface-to-air missiles. The 12 P-3C "Orion" aircraft are land-based, anti-submarine (ASW) patrol aircraft. The planes carry advanced submarine detection sensors, including directional frequency and ranging (DIFAR) sonobuoys and magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) equipment.

Taiwan hopes the new defensive measures will help the island counter China's increase of 50 short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles per year, with its current supply totaling 300. The purchase, according to a statement by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, will help to ensure Taiwan's security and "maintain stability across the Taiwan Strait."

U.S. President George W. Bush has maintained that the United States will help Taiwan defend itself. The passing of the bill, however, merely follows several decisions that could spell disaster for Sino-U.S relations in the long run.

For example, Israel in July 2000 relented to U.S. pressure and cancelled a $250 million contract to sell the Chinese government a Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. Israel announced Dec. 17 it wants to settle the accounts over the termination of the deal, which has seriously strained relations between the two.

Since coming to power, the Bush administration has accelerated plans to establish a theater missile defense system that could include Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, in addition to the plans for a U.S. national missile defense system. On the same day that the House passed the defense act, the president also announced that the United States would abandon the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that forbids testing and deployment of a ballistic missile defense system.

The president claims that the treaty, which he termed a vestige of the Cold War era, hindered the government's ability to develop the means to protect its people. While Russia gave a muted response, China protested the decision and said it tips the balance of military power between Beijing and Washington in favor of the United States. The U.S. government refuted the claim by saying that China has the capability to launch missiles that could penetrate a missile defense system.

China has also found itself a spectator to the budding U.S. friendship with Russia and India, which could pose a significant military threat to China. And after the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States now believes it has the justification for using whatever means necessary to protect its territory.

Despite the moves to increase economic cooperation between the two countries, the recent U.S. actions indicate to Beijing that it cannot prevent Washington from making military decisions that actively undermine its security. This will have long-term political ramifications, especially as China is expected to undergo a leadership change next year. Heightened tensions with Washington when the new regime takes power will likely color its view of the United States in the years ahead.