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19 September 2003 |
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http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/world/Viewdet.asp?ID=1127&cat=b |
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WASHINGTON, (Agencies): Some American intelligence analysts are becoming increasingly concerned that North Korea may have three, four or even six nuclear weapons instead of the one or two the CIA now estimates. Every new weapon would enhance North Korea's nuclear capability and give the country significantly more authority at the negotiating table, experts say. One or two nuclear weapons would be considered last-resort devices, because once used they could no longer deter a US nuclear response. But a half-dozen would give North Korea the ability to strike and then be ready to strike again. In addition, if North Korea had weapons to spare, its leaders might be more willing to part with one, either in a test or by selling it. The leaders also could more easily afford to put one weapon on display at a missile launch site for US spy satellites to see - to up the ante in negotiations. "We're trying to nail that down," Sen Evan Bayh said of analytical efforts to study North Korea's weapons program. "The consequences of them having more nuclear warheads is significant, in terms of them conducting a test, or possibly trafficking in nuclear materials," said Bayh, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Among the issues being debated by American intelligence analysts is whether the North Koreans have refined their nuclear weapons designs so they are able to use less plutonium to make a working weapon. Some analysts presume the North Koreans have made steady advances in their weapons' designs, and thus are able to use their existing stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium more efficiently, according to several US government officials. They all discussed intelligence information on the condition of anonymity. However, the CIA, as an agency, has not reached that conclusion. It is sticking with its unclassified estimate of one or two weapons, the officials said. Other US estimates put the number at three or four; still others are floating five or six weapons as a possibility. The Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department and Energy Department all have experts who examine intelligence on foreign nuclear weapons programs. It could not be ascertained if a particular agency is making the higher estimates. Meanwhile, North Korea has denounced a new US missile defence system deployed in South Korea as a threat to peace and a barrier to resolving the crisis over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons drive. North Korea, which says it must receive security guarantees from the United States before it will scrap its nuclear weapons, says the installation of the state of the art anti-ballistic system is the last piece in US plans to launch a war against the Stalinist state. The US military unveiled the upgraded Patriot anti-missile system on Thursday, explaining it was purely defensive in nature and designed to thwart a missile blitz from the North. The North's state-run television responded later Thursday by saying the missile defense system would "complete war preparations for preemptive strikes against North Korea," according to Seoul Yonhap news agency which monitors North Korean broadcasts. North Korea says the United States must change its "hostile" policy towards Pyongyang before the nuclear crisis which erupted 11 months ago can end. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il was disappointed at the US attitude when six-party nuclear crisis talks took place in Beijing late last month because their was no sign of any such change in Washington's stance, North Korean official media reported recently. North Korea later denounced the talks as "useless." "If the United States wants to resolve the nuclear problem peacefully, it must stop the war preparations and change its hostile policy on the DPRK (North Korea)," Pyongyang's state television said in Thursday's commentary. "The US arms buildup in South Korea is creating a stumbling block to resolving the nuclear problem as it is dangerous war preparation to increase tensions on the Korean peninsula." In a related development, China denied moving 150,000 soldiers to its border with North Korea because of nuclear tensions, insisting Thursday the frontier was calm and it was working with its reclusive neighbor to safeguard "stability and tranquility" there. Hong Kong media reported recently that Beijing deployed the soldiers to stem crime by impoverished North Korean forces and to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program - the source of international tensions and the subject of multilateral diplomacy. China Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan denied those reports, saying soldiers assumed border-patrol duties in a long-planned administrative change. He would not say how many troops were involved.
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