11 December 2003
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 128
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor: Ilan Berman

Reversing its recent decision to limit national missile defense activities, Australia has just announced it has signed on to the Bush administration’s missile defense plans. In an official statement, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer called the move a “strategic decision to put in place a long-term measure to counter potential threats to Australia’s security and its interests from ballistic missile proliferation,” Reuters (December 4) reports. Canberra, viewed by the White House as a major partner in countering the growing threat from North Korea, is expected to play a leading role in Washington’s Asian anti-missile shield, although no details regarding costs or concrete projects have as yet been provided by the Australian government.

Canberra’s controversial about-face has touched off a firestorm of criticism. Domestically, the decision has been attacked by the country’s Democratic and Green parties, which have questioned the technology and security implications of such cooperation. Regionally, the move has been blasted by Indonesia, whose foreign minister, Hassan Wirayuda – in comments carried by ABC Radio Australia News (December 8) – has claimed it “could trigger [an] arms race” in the region. Jakarta has also requested a formal explanation of the move and its implications for Southeast Asian security from the Australian Foreign Ministry. 

But the main foreseen opponent of the Australian decision – China – has reacted “moderately” to the news, according to ABC Radio Australia News (December 5). The muted response from Beijing reflects that Chinese officials “increasingly understand this isn’t directed at China, or isn’t designed to intervene in the China-Taiwan issue, which is of course their great area of sensitivity,” says Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. “This is about dealing with a very limited number of missiles from rogue states.”

IN THE CAUCASUS, ROGUE MISSILES TAKE CENTER STAGE

A recent expose in the Washington Post (December 7) reveals that dozens of rockets tipped with unconventional warheads have gone missing in Moldova. Documents cited by the paper indicate that at least 38 “Alazan” short-range rockets – originally developed by the Soviet Union for use in weather experiments, and subsequently modified with warheads carrying radioactive material – have disappeared from a large weapons stockpile in the breakaway region of Transdniester. The 8-mile range rockets, effectively the first surface-to-surface “dirty bombs,” are believed to have been sold on Moldova’s flourishing arms market, which has become an attractive shopping destination for elements of international organized crime. The news raises international worries that terrorist groups or rogue nations may have managed to acquire the radioactive missiles.

A GREATER FOCUS ON COUNTERPROLIFERATION

The State Department’s top arms control official has laid out a tough new U.S. nonproliferation policy. In December 2nd comments before an international security conference hosted by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis and Tufts University, Undersecretary of State John Bolton stressed that “[r]ogue states such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, Libya and Cuba, whose pursuit of weapons of mass destruction makes them hostile to U.S. interests, will learn that their covert programs will not escape either detection or consequences.” Bolton, the State Department’s chief of arms control and international security, stressed that the U.S. “will pursue diplomatic solutions whenever possible,” but that Washington and its allies “are also willing to deploy more robust techniques, such as the interdiction and seizure of illicit goods” – a reference to the Proliferation Security Initiative launched by the United States earlier this year. “If rogue states are not willing to follow the logic of nonproliferation norms,” Bolton said, “they must be prepared to face the logic of adverse consequences… no option is off the table.”

ISRAEL’S “NORTHERN” THREAT GROWS

Hezbollah, Lebanon’s premier terrorist organization, could soon substantially expand its missile capabilities, courtesy of Iran. According to the November 26th Jerusalem Post, the Islamic Republic plans to broaden the short- and medium-range missile capabilities of the radical Shi’ite militia, and new, extended range missiles currently under development by Tehran could soon end up in the hands of Hezbollah guerrillas. The effort follows substantial recent upgrades to Hezbollah’s short-range missile arsenal, carried out by Iran with Syria’s assistance, which have supplied the group with a large number of extended-range “Katyusha” rockets.