16 June 2003
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 107
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor: Ilan Berman


http://www.afpc.org

BUMPS ON THE ROAD TO U.S.-RUSSIAN COOPERATION
The June 1st St. Petersburg summit between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have yielded a mutual commitment to missile defense. But Washington and Moscow are now finding that implementing cooperation is much more tricky. The Agence France Presse (June 8) reports that U.S.-Russian missile defense ties are largely stalled, and "specific projects have not been identified," due to political concerns on both sides. For Washington, worries over Russian ties to Iran, and the Kremlin's ongoing assistance to the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, have blocked cooperation. Officials in Moscow, meanwhile, worry that the U.S. will use missile defense cooperation as a means to "cherry pick" and expropriate Russian defense-industrial assets.

SETBACKS IN SEOUL
In a step away from cooperation with the United States, South Korea has announced plans for a domestic system to protect the Asian nation from ballistic missile attack. A June 11th article in the country's Chosun Ilbo newspaper reveals that Seoul has decided to press ahead with the Korean Air and Missile Defense, a nation-wide system designed to intercept incoming ballistic missiles, as well as aircraft and artillery. The indigenous Korean system, oriented against the growing ballistic missile threat from North Korea, is expected to be completed by 2010.

While a formal decision on participation in U.S. plans for Asian defense is still forthcoming, the announcement has cast a pall over Seoul-Washington cooperation. In a June 10th interview with South Korea's KBS radio program, Deputy Defence Minister Cha Young-koo indicated that his government now might not purchase Patriot missiles from the United States, as envisioned under a recent $11 billion, three-year Pentagon plan. However, Korean experts believe that long-term Korean-American missile defense dialogue will continue. The high costs of the planned Korean system, they say, are likely to necessitate its interoperability with U.S. defenses in the region.

TAKING STOCK OF TRIPOLI
A senior U.S. official is publicly raising concerns about Libya's accelerating quest for ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. In testimony before the House International Relations Committee on June 4th, John Bolton, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, stressed that Tripoli has expanded its biological, chemical and missile efforts since the easing of international sanctions in 1999. In addition to ongoing work on advanced chemical weapons and a rudimentary bioweapons program, "Libya continues its efforts to obtain ballistic missile equipment and technology," The Geostrategy-Direct intelligence newsletter (week of June 17th) cites Bolton as saying. "Libya's current capability probably remains limited to Scud B SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], but with continued foreign assistance, it may achieve a MRBM [medium-range ballistic missile] capability or extended-range Scud capability."

NORTH KOREA AND IRAN: A QUICKENING WMD PARTNERSHIP
Amid growing international concern over their respective nuclear programs, Iran is ramping up its missile and WMD cooperation with North Korea. Middle East Newsline (June 13) reports that Iran and North Korea have accelerated reciprocal scientific visits in recent months, as efforts to develop self-sufficient nuclear infrastructures in both countries move forward. The news marks a paradigm shift in Iranian atomic strategy. In light of growing U.S. pressure on the Kremlin to end nuclear cooperation with the Islamic Republic, "Iran is moving away from relying on Russia and sees North Korea as its major guarantor of Teheran's nuclear program," says a Western intelligence source cited by the news agency.

Tehran's collaboration with Pyongyang doesn't end there. According to Japan's Kyodo News Service (June 15), North Korea is believed to have transported missiles and warhead components to the Islamic Republic in recent months. The news agency, citing South Korea's JoonAng Ilbo, reports that Iran is believed to have flown containers carrying disassembled warheads and "Rodong" missiles from North Korea's Sunan airport as many as six times since April.

 


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