20 November 2004
Putin's nuclear plans signal new arms race
Bush's critics blame his push to build a missile defense system
By ERIC ROSENBERG

Hearst News Service


http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/world/2910245

WASHINGTON - The announcement last week that Russia is building advanced nuclear missiles signals that a new arms race is under way, a development that Bush administration critics say was triggered by the imminent deployment of the U.S. missile defense system.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a gathering of Russian military officers last Wednesday that his government is testing new missiles that "will be put in service within the next few years and, what is more, they will be developments of the kind that other nuclear powers do not and will not have," according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.

The Russian leader, who has previously stated that defeating terrorism fomented by the Chechnya rebellion was his top security concern, told the audience that "we will continue to persistently develop our armed forces on the whole, including its nuclear arsenal potential."

U.S. system almost ready

Putin's comments are the latest in a series of Russian warnings that the development of the American missile defense program will not go unchallenged. The U.S. missile defense system is scheduled to be operational by the end of December. The system consists of six rocket interceptors installed in silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, with 10 more interceptors planned there. Four more will be based at Vandenburg Air Force Base in central California.

The goal of missile defense is to protect against a very limited missile attack. In theory, a non-explosive warhead carried aloft into space by a U.S. rocket interceptor would hit and destroy an enemy warhead bearing down on a U.S. city.

Many defense analysts have warned that the drive by the United States to develop a missile defense could provoke an arms escalation.

Fears of an arms race

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, has cautioned that missile defense "is likely to unleash an arms race with other countries."

Harold Brown a former secretary of defense under President Carter, said that China would build up its long-range nuclear forces "to whatever level is necessary ... in the face of a future U.S. ballistic missile defense system."

The Pentagon in its annual assessment of China's military power echoes the view that Beijing considers missile defense a direct threat.

The Defense Department's report last May said Beijing believes that U.S. missile defenses "will challenge the credibility of China's nuclear deterrent and eventually be extended to protect Taiwan."

Victoria Samson, a nuclear analyst with the nonpartisan Center for Defense Information, said Putin's emphasis on nuclear weapons "absolutely is a response to what the United States has been doing" in missile defense.

She noted that Putin's comments came the same week the Pentagon announced that the first six interceptors had been installed at Fort Greely, which is 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks.

Mixed test results

Missile defense is a complex technological undertaking, and eventually will include a complicated network of computers, satellites and sensors to guide the rocket to its target.

The system has had five test successes and three failures.

As Pentagon officials acknowledge, the successful tests were under controlled circumstances to help prove the technological concepts.

Russia and China are concerned that their nuclear deterrent would be greatly diminished by a U.S. missile defense system. U.S. officials have responded that missile defenses are only designed to counter missiles launched by Iran or North Korea.

Pentagon officials also point out that the thousands of Russian warheads already available could overwhelm American missile defenses.

The Pentagon expects to spend $10 billion next year for the system.

White House unconcerned

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration was not concerned about new Russian nuclear weapons programs.

Asked about Putin's comments, McClellan said: "We are very well aware of their long-standing modernization efforts for their military."

He said that the two countries were allies in the war against terrorism and shared the goal of reducing nuclear arsenals.

Putin and Bush will have the opportunity to discuss the issue face to face this weekend.

The two leaders were scheduled to have lunch during a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation organization in Santiago, Chile.

RESOURCES
INTENSIFIED NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM

Despite U.S. assurances, Russia has shown an increasing reliance on its nuclear arsenal to counter America's sole superpower status since the Bush administration's announcement in 2001 that it would withdraw from a 1972 treaty prohibiting deployment of a missile defense system:

  • Flight change: In February, it successfully tested a new nuclear weapon that can change course in flight, rendering it "nearly impossible to track and target" by the U.S. missile defense system, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
  • Multiple targets: Putin said last year he would activate dozens more SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles that would carry multiple warheads, which could overwhelm a missile defense system.
  • Bigger missiles: The military is extending the life of its SS-18 "heavy" ICBMs. These also carry multiple warheads and can strike most targets in the United States.
  • Most advanced: Russia is placing multiple warheads on its silo-based Topol-M ICBMs and is developing a mobile variant of the weapon that can be ferried around the country on large trucks. The Topols are capable of hitting any target in the United States.
  • Ominous upgrades: In May, a senior nuclear forces officer, Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, said upgraded Topol-M missiles will have increased capability "for piercing missile defenses under construction" in the United States.
  • Underwater improvements: Russia has begun building a new class of submarines capable of launching nuclear weapons.

 


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