US President George W. Bush's plan for a missile shield to counter the threat posed by so-called rogue states will undermine regional security, leading government and defence analysts say in a survey.

If implemented, the initiative would spark a global surge in defence spending as states strove to try to offset the advantage it handed to the world's only superpower, they said.

The findings are the result of a weekend survey of 31 experts conducted by the Straits Times.

Dr Kusnanto Anggoro of Indonesia's Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "It will trigger an enormous arms race, especially between the US and countries like China and Russia."

In what could be a significant blow to the standing of the Bush White House across Asia, those questioned said they did not accept the President's assertion that it was necessary to abrogate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia to take on the threats posed by North Korea, and other "rogue states".

"The so-called threats from countries like North Korea and Iraq are merely an excuse . . . the ultimate target of such a plan is China," Michael Cheng, a Taiwanese political analyst, said. "(China) is the only country in the world which had beaten the US, in the Korean War and the Vietnam War."

The 1972 agreement with Moscow has long been regarded as the cornerstone of international efforts to promote arms control. In his address last week outlining the drive to build the missile-defence system, Mr Bush indicated he would scrap the treaty.

The move, clearly advertised during Mr Bush's presidential campaign, triggered alarm among Washington's traditional allies and adversaries, who said it could destabilise global security.

"This will potentially raise tension instead of creating global and regional security," Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a researcher at Indonesia's non-governmental Habibie Centre, said. "It will return the suspicions of the Cold War . . . (Many Asian countries) generally respond to this plan negatively."

The Straits Times poll found that 68 per cent of respondents agreed that the missile plan would have a negative impact on geopolitical stability across Asia. The same percentage said they believed the plan would endanger world peace by stoking an arms race.

"It will have a negative impact if China sees itself as the object or target of that plan and responds by increasing the range and quantity of its own missiles to undermine the effectiveness of the defensive shield," Chin Kin Wah, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, said.

The poll, which covered government officials and academics from China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines and India, found that fewer than 20 per cent of respondents believed Mr Bush's argument about the need to counter "rogue states".

"Another consequence is that Europe will feel left out because the National Missile Defence System is deployed only in the US," Dr Anggoro said. "In the past, Europe was part of the US extended deterrence system."

In his speech, the US President said he would despatch high-level delegations to Asia, Europe, Australia and Canada to explain the thinking behind the unilateral move.

Professor Qian Wenrong, of China's Xinhua World Affairs Research Centre, said: "The target of the US is China. It wants to reduce the effectiveness of China's small nuclear arsenal to zero."