Professor Des Ball from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra, says North East Asia and South Asia, now lead the world in the speed of missile proliferation.

And he says the effort by the United States to create a missile defence shield, will only fuel Asia's arms race.

Graeme Dobell reports.

GRAEME DOBELL: North East Asia and South Asia lead the world in the proliferation of missile systems.

Professor Des Ball says China, within a decade, could achieve a ten-fold increase in its number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, from about two dozen to 250.

One tension driving the missile race is the contest between China and India, with India creating missiles with a range far beyond what Delhi needs to threaten Pakistan, thus able to target China.

By 2010, Professor Ball says, China could have 1,000 nuclear warheads, about half to one-third the number likely then to be held by Russia and the United States. By that time, he says, India could have more nuclear weapons than Britain.

This strategic pressure is further complicated by the United States push to create an anti-missile shield, with key allies in North East Asia wanting to share that shield.

Japan is to spend $1 billion a year to help the research and development of the US anti-missile program, and Washington has just announced it'll sell Taiwan radar worth $1.8 billion dollars to detect ballistic missile launches.

Professor Ball says more missiles will be produced to maintain the ability to overcome the shield.

DES BALL: Large-scale missile defences will almost inevitably generate counter-measures, including missile build-ups by other countries. And when we are talking about an American homeland missile defence, national missile defence, then we're talking about pretty significant, potentially quite large build-ups by Russia and especially China.

GRAEME DOBELL: Isn't the genie out of the bottle, though, in terms of national missile defence? Isn't the missile build up already underway in China, in India, in Pakistan?

DES BALL: Yes, we're well into what's an unfolding picture. Missile proliferation both in South Asia, and in North East Asia, and involving many players and many sorts of missiles is now proceeding, perhaps not rapidly, but certainly steadily to an extent which is much greater than anywhere else in the world, and to an extent which does generate serious interest in some form of anti-missile missiles, some missiles that can shoot these offensive missile down.

GRAEME DOBELL: Has Asia then passed the point of no return? Is it now in a full-on arms race?

DES BALL: It is not into a full-on arms race yet. But I think that for the first time, we are seeing quite definite signs that we're into that arms control process, and that if nothing is done about it in the very near term ? this is now an urgent, very urgent issue ? then we will be into a full-on arms race.

TANYA NOLAN: Professor Des Ball of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in
Canberra, with Graeme Dobell.