The parliament's agenda-setting body, the Duma Council, had planned today to review a bill outlining Russia's nuclear weapons program.
But it delayed debate because no parliamentary factions except the liberal Yabloko party submitted proposals or suggestions for the measure, the Interfax news agency said.
Russia's Communist-led parliament has repeatedly delayed action on the START II treaty, signed by the United States and Russia in 1993.
The lawmakers want an additional measure outlining the country's nuclear weapons program before they act on the treaty.
The START II treaty would halve the Russian and American nuclear arsenals to about 3,000 to 3,500 warheads each.
Yabloko leaders accused Communists in the parliament of once again stalling on the treaty, which the U.S. Senate ratified in 1996.
Yeltsin and other proponents of ratification say the missiles that would be destroyed under START-II will soon be out of date anyway.
One positive note was sounded today when Nikolai Kharitonov, a leader of the Communist-allied Agrarian Party, said he had changed his mind about the treaty after a meeting with Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, and now supported it.
"As things stand now, ratification is in Russia's interest," Kharitonov said, according to the Interfax news agency. He suggested that Russia could enhance its prospects for Western financial aid by ratifying the accord.
START II: BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
Moscow (Interfax)
In the Byzantine twilight of Russian political life it is ironically now the Communists (long-time treaty detractors) who seem ready to give the green light for the ratification of the START II treaty. The recent ascendancy of several prominent Communists into the cabinet of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has turned the tide in favor of ratification. Prime Minister Primakov and First Vice Prime Minister Yuriy Maslyukov personally lobbied members of the Communist-led Russian Duma - the lower house of the Russian Parliament - to ratify the treaty during closed hearings on November 10, 1998. Following these increased efforts, chances for the approval of the treaty by the Duma sometime in December are now higher than ever before.
START II was signed in January 1993 amidst the honeymoon of post-Cold War relations between the United States and Russia. Its provisions require both sides to reduce their massive deployed strategic nuclear forces by almost half - to a level of 3,000-3,500 deployed warheads each. (The United States still plans to retain a total stockpile of some 10,000 nuclear weapons, though, even as the number of deployed weapons shrinks.) The U.S. Senate ratified the treaty in 1996. The Russian Duma, in contrast, has shelved it for more than three years since President Yeltsin formally submitted it for ratification in June 1995.
The Road Ahead
Just six months ago the Duma majority would not even consider a formal discussion of the treaty, but in November these same deputies agreed to accelerate the process considerably. Now they debate not just the notion of ratification, but specific implementing legislation drafted by officials from the Duma and Foreign and Defense Ministries.
In April, President Yeltsin submitted his own START II ratification bill, which lacks Communist support and thus, popular opinion holds, has no chance of approval. In order to forestall the possibility of such a rejection, officials both in the Yeltsin government and Duma have begun to favor a Working Group approach. A Working Group draft resolution is currently being prepared jointly by representatives from both houses of Parliament, the office of the government and the presidential administration. Once this joint resolution is completed, the President will formally denounce his April bill and submit instead the agreed draft resolution. Such an approach will provide the Duma with the opportunity to consider the agreed bill from the very beginning - with much greater probability of its rapid approval.
Reportedly, the ratification bill looks similar to that passed by the U.S. Senate, containing various conditions on START III, the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, and non-deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of new NATO members. Other provisions are addressed to the executive power, and call for the development of a START II-compatible plan for strategic nuclear force modernization, and sufficient financing of that plan. Although the Working Group probably agrees on the necessity of the conditions, concerns on specific wording remain. Some advocate more obligatory language requiring that missile deactivation under START II be initiated only after a satisfactory START III agreement is concluded. Others prefer a softer approach, perhaps requiring only a presidential recommendation on further START II implementation, contingent on progress in the negotiation of START III.
Most likely, these concerns will not permit debates to begin on the Duma floor in early December, as some observers hurriedly predicted. Given that the Duma usually considers ratification of international agreements on Friday afternoons, December 18 or December 25 seem like more realistic deadlines.
Potential Roadblocks Remain
Despite all the recent activity, START II ratification should not be taken for granted. Communist and nationalist hardliners have so strongly committed themselves to opposition of the treaty that it will be very difficult for them to change their position - even if they want to help their newly-appointed allies in the Cabinet. Similarly, parliamentary liberals who have supported ratification for many years might now be unwilling to make concessions to the pro-leftist ministers.
Moreover, there may be some opposition from deputies precisely because of the not very subtle linking by Maslyukov of START II ratification with new loans from the International Monetary Fund. In their eyes, the treaty deserves to be rejected simply because this would be the most efficient way to liberate Russia from the IMF and what they call its 'charlatan prescriptions.' Finally, the entire treaty could be revoked either by the Duma or by the U.S. Senate if the United States breaks out of the ABM treaty and deploys a national missile defense system, as some Senators advocate.
Nonetheless, by January 3, 1999, six years after START II was signed with much fanfare, President Yeltsin finally has a real chance to gain its ratification. Unfortunately for him, this triumph may only be possible because of the ascendancy of his political archrivals - the Duma Communists.
Alexander Pikayev
Alexander Pikayev is a Scholar-in-Residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center and directs the Moscow-based activities of the Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project.
RUSSIAN EXPERT CALLS FOR RATIFICATION OF START-II TREATY
Moscow (Interfax)
The alternative draft for ratifying the START II treaty that has been prepared in the State Duma takes into consideration the real ratio of Russia's and the United States' nuclear potentials at present and early next century, an expert who helped draft the treaty told Interfax Monday [23 November] on condition of anonymity. START II, which was signed in 1993 by the Russian and US presidents, "failed to reflect the growing imbalance of the two countries' nuclear missile potential to the advantage of the United States," the source said. Russia "did practically nothing to renew its nuclear missile forces over the past ten years due to the aggravated economic situation, he said. By 2007, Russia will have approximately 1,500 military units on alert against roughly 5,500 in the United States, he said. The Russian military triad will cease to be "a serious deterring factor" as its elements become obsolete, especially in the air force and navy, he said. Russia will not be able to maintain nuclear parity with the United States over the next 10 years, he said.
This "jeopardizes the military reform which Russia planned to implement under the cover of its nuclear umbrella," he said. The Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces "may cease to exist" by 2010 if the current lack of financing persists, he said. Russia should dismantle its obsolete missiles and install 30-35 Topol-M complexes per year to ensure its defense capabilities in 2001-2006, he said.
Even then, the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces would be three to four times smaller than envisioned in START II, he said. The expert urged the State Duma must ratify the treaty and start negotiating a START III. Otherwise, 10-15 billion rubles will be needed annually to maintain the force, which is "very unlikely" to be allocated, he said. Furthermore, early next century Russia will probably be relegated to the level of "the so-called small nuclear countries" from its previous level of a nuclear super-power, he said.
RUSSIA CANNOT AFFORD ITS NUCLEAR SHIELD
by Vladimir YERMOLIN, Izvestia
The State Duma committees on defence and international affairs, which drafted a law on the ratification of START-2, believe that the treaty takes into account both the interests of national defences and Russia's economic possibilities.
The main thing is that Russia does not need the current large shield, say experts of the Defence Ministry. National security can be easily ensured by a smaller arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. With figures in hand, the specialists of the General Staff have been trying to prove to the deputies the expediency of ratifying the treaty for several years now.
Today they have been joined by members of the Duma committees on defence and international affairs. But it appears that we are approaching the end of this drawn-out story, which began with the signing of the treaty by the two presidents in Moscow in January 1993.
Roman Popkovich, chairman of the defence committee provided many arguments in favour of ratification at a press conference on November 18. But one would be enough: Russia does not have the money to maintain 5,000 nuclear warheads. Russia should spend at least 60 billion roubles a year (in pre-August 17 prices) to maintain and renew its nuclear arsenals, which is a utopian dream, as the 1998 defence budget amounts to only 82.5 billion roubles. Worse still, the treasury will be able to provide only 75% of this sum. This is a purely economic argument. Military arguments have been discussed many times, and today we can only rely on the aforementioned opinion of professionals.
The draft law, submitted by deputies Vladimir Lukin and Roman Popkovich, takes into account all wishes and arguments of ratification opponents. For example, it stipulates the conditions under which Russia may withdraw from START-2. This can happen if the USA violates ABM treaties and agreements.
The draft law also mentions the threat of the NATO eastward enlargement. Russia will withdraw from START-2 if NATO creates a threat to its national security on the territory of European members by deploying nuclear or pin-point weapons there. And lastly, the law stipulates guarantees of stable funding and fulfilment of the development programme of the Russian strategic nuclear forces until the year 2010.
It is difficult to say if the deputies will ratify the treaty at their December session, but the chances are good enough. Maybe the Communist Party faction, which has always opposed treaty, will listen to its men in the government. And Vladimir Zhirinovsky might amend his stance if the government takes into consideration his personal interests. And yet, there are many ways to explode the situation, to reduce to naught the efforts of ratification proponents. For example, the problem could be moved to the political plane, with ratification linked with IMF credits. This would be the best present imaginable for the irreconcilable deputies who claim START-2 is a programme of destroying national defences on Western money.
RUSSIA MULLS START 2 RATIFICATION
By Chloe Arnold, Moscow Times
MOSCOW, Reuters
The Russian parliament may debate
next month the much delayed ratification of the START 2 nuclear arms
reduction treaty with the United States, a prominent member of the
Duma said on Thursday.
U.S. officials cautiously welcomed the signs of progress but warned the Communist-led Duma not to risk wrecking the 1993 treaty, which has already been ratified by the U.S. Senate, by inserting amendments unacceptable to Washington.
Vladimir Lukin, the liberal chairman of the Duma foreign affairs committee and a former ambassador to Washington, told reporters he felt a "measured optimism" that a ratification bill he had helped draw up would win backing from the chamber.
The bill, a draft of which was circulated on Thursday, spells out conditions under which Russia would reserve the right to break the 1993 treaty, which provides for cuts in the two sides' deployed nuclear warheads by up to two-thirds from about 6,000 each to no more than 3,500 each by the year 2007.
Among the conditions were that Russia would consider the treaty no longer binding if the United States broke either START 2 or the 1991 START 1 or 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty or threatened Russia's national security in other ways.
Another clause said Russia would be free of its obligations if a third power created a nuclear threat. Addressing a major concern in Moscow, it also foresaw canceling START 2 if the United States or its allies threatened Russia by deploying nuclear weapons in new NATO member states in Eastern Europe or developed armaments in space that could damage Russia's early warning system for missile attacks.
Lukin said the bill had been drafted in cooperation with the Defense and Foreign ministries, indicating he believed that the conditions in the ratification bill did not run counter to the Kremlin's reading of the treaty itself and that President Boris Yeltsin would sign the ratification bill if it were passed.
However, the bill may face opposition in the Duma, where some are pressing for more stringent security guarantees. And Senator Richard Lugar, an expert on Russian disarmament who was in Moscow on Thursday during a tour of sites where weapons are being dismantled, warned that the whole treaty could be wrecked if Duma skeptics attached too many strings.
Noting that the Senate had avoided amending the treaty itself but added some clarifying language in its ratification, Lugar said the Duma could answer its concerns by doing the same.
"But to add an item such as no nuclear weapons in the Baltics or something of this variety as a condition clearly would be unacceptable and we're not going to have a START 2 under those conditions," he added.
"It would require the United States to have another debate on START 2 ratification on those terms. That does not look promising," he said. The United States and Yeltsin have been pressing the house to ratify the treaty and have even begun work on what would be a START 3 while waiting for it to do so.
A U.S. embassy spokesman said he had yet to see the draft but added: "We are encouraged to see the Duma accelerating the pace of the work on this."
But opponents of the treaty, especially Communists, say the dismantling of nuclear warheads puts too great a strain on Russia's stretched finances and threatens funding for maintaining and modernizing the rest of its defenses.
They have been seeking greater guarantees on financing, including U.S. aid, before they will ratify START 2.
The Duma's draft bill contained clauses demanding parliamentary oversight of the progress of implementing the treaty and government and presidential commitments to provide funding for maintaining Russia's nuclear arsenal. It put forward an end-2003 deadline for reaching an accord on further cuts in warhead numbers.
DUMA DRAFTS BILL TO RATIFY START II
By Chloe Arnold, Moscow Times
The State Duma is ready to debate ratification of the long-awaited START II nuclear disarmament treaty, speaker of the lower house Gennady Seleznyov said Wednesday.
A parliamentary bill calling for ratification of the treaty has been drafted by lawmakers, was approved by Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and is unlikely to be snubbed by President Boris Yeltsin, Seleznyov said. He did not say when the treaty will be put to a vote, but Duma sources said it is likely to be put on the agenda for next month.
The drafting of the bill marks the most significant progress yet toward ratifying the treaty, which has been languishing in the Duma for several years.
The Communist and nationalist-dominated Duma has repeatedly refused to discuss START II in the past, claiming the treaty would put Russia at a strategic disadvantage compared to the United States.
But analysts say that today's dire financial climate and the need to curry favor with Western governments and lending institutions have persuaded many lawmakers of the need to ratify the document.
Deputies, however, insisted on including several conditions in the bill on ratification, in particular that the government immediately begin negotiating a START III disarmament treaty, which the Duma hopes will further reduce the United States' strategic advantage over Russia.
"The problem of security must be viewed in a wide context," Seleznyov said. "Duma deputies and other state officials are aware of this."
"The bill provides for funds needed to keep the remaining missiles combat -ready and calls for the speedy signing of START III, which would protect Russia's security," Interfax quoted Seleznyov as saying during a meeting with visiting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk.
Signed in 1993 by Yeltsin and then U.S. President George Bush, the START II agreement bans all multiple-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2003 and cuts the number of single-warhead ICBMs on both sides to between 3,000 and 3,500. The U.S. Senate ratified the treaty in 1993, but the Duma has dragged its feet until now.
The Russian government insists that it needs the treaty to maintain parity with the United States. While Washington keeps a massive nuclear arsenal, Moscow cannot afford to do so and its stockpile is shrinking as aging missiles are taken out of service and not replaced.
At a briefing Wednesday, Duma Defense Committee chairman Roman Popkovich said deputies, too, are beginning to share the government's view.
"The point of ratification is not just to bring down the ceiling, but to protect our national security," Popkovich said. "We must clearly realize that today it is not necessary to have stocks of 6,000 warheads."
Popkovich said the Russian state could no longer afford to maintain as many nuclear arms as the United States and that ratifying the accord was therefore essential.
"In order to maintain our nuclear missile potential, we will need 50 to 60 billion rubles [$3 billion to $3.5 billion] a year for the next seven years," he said. "The Duma approved an entire defense budget for this year of 82.5 billion rubles. So we have to decide whether or not this is feasible."
START 2: SORRY TO DROP IT, BUT IT'S TOO HEAVY TO CARRY
Segodnya (Moscow) - Summary translation from Russia Today
Summary Duma defense committee chairman Roman Popkovich on Wednesday spoke about the START 2 treaty signed by Russian and U.S. leaders in 1991.
The daily wrote that from his speech, it finally became clear why the Duma has refused to ratify START 2 for so long:
The deputies were unhappy with the treaty's technical parameters.
It was hard to dare to cut heavy RS-20 missiles made in Ukraine. But the most important thing was that Russia still hoped to have closer military cooperation with Ukraine, which would have made cooperation in missile construction viable. For this reason, in 1992-93 the START 2 treaty was considered premature, if not damaging.
Now, it is obvious that economic cooperation with Ukraine has become impossible for political as well as economic reasons. To keep up at the level of the START 1 treaty, Russia would need 50-60 billion roubles annually -- more than the whole budget for its military.
Popkovich concluded that ratification of START 2 by the incumbent Duma is better for Russia's strategic defense capabilities, because rejection would result in great problems in the future.
TROUBLES INVIGORATE DEBATE ON START II: RUSSIAN CRISIS SAPS BUDGET FOR MISSILES
By David Hoffman, Washington Post Foreign Service
MOSCOW: After years of delay, Russia's lower house of parliament has begun making serious headway toward ratification of the START II strategic arms accord, lawmakers and experts said today. The shift followed delivery to parliament of a secret government report warning that Russia's nuclear shield will shrink dramatically and unavoidably in the years ahead due to weapons obsolescence and national economic decline.
The treaty -- signed in January 1993 by President Bush and President Boris Yeltsin and ratified by the U.S. Senate in January 1996 -- has attracted sharp opposition in the lower house, the State Duma, from nationalists and Communists, who dominate the 450-member chamber. The accord has languished there for almost six years, despite Yeltsin's repeated promises to push it forward.
But lawmakers said there has been a change in the political outlook for the treaty that could bring it to a vote as soon as next month. The shift is based on an increasing realization that Russia's economic troubles have seriously undermined its ability to maintain a large strategic nuclear force. Backers say the treaty will limit the size of the U.S. nuclear force, which has become a compelling argument for ratification as the scope of the Russian decline grows apparent.
Alexei Podberiozkin, an influential Communist Party member and deputy chairman of the International Affairs Committee, has decided to back the treaty.
"I had been very strongly opposed to this treaty for many years, but the situation has changed -- not in favor of Russia," he said. Podberiozkin added that "until recently, I thought there was no chance for ratification. Now, if we work hard, I suppose we can ratify it in December."
Like many other officials here, Podberiozkin said he wants ratification to lead "as quickly as possible" to negotiations for a follow-on START III accord, with still lower levels of strategic weapons, which Yeltsin and President Clinton have pledged. START II would set limits of 3,500 to 3,000 warheads for each side, down from 6,000 under START I. The tentative goals for START III, set earlier by Clinton and Yeltsin, are between 2,500 and 2,000 warheads for each side. However, the reality of Russia's dwindling strategic forces is that it cannot support even that many and that its heavy multiple-warhead, land-based missiles are reaching the end of their service life. Some hard-liners had argued that those missiles could be kept in service for many years more, but "it became painfully obvious that we will not have the money to maintain any kind of multiple-warhead missiles and that it is wiser to concentrate on modernization of strategic forces," said Vladimir Averchev, a supporter of START II and a member of the centrist Yabloko bloc in parliament.
START II outlaws land-based, multiple-warhead missiles, and Russia has started replacing them with new, single-warhead missiles, but the new Topol-M rocket recently failed a test flight, and it is not clear how many Russia can build, given its economic problems.
Roman Popkovich, chairman of the Duma's Defense Committee, said that if Russia does not ratify START II and decides to maintain the older missiles, it would consume more than the current military budget. Moreover, he said, the older missiles are a safety threat. "After lengthy storage . . . nobody knows where it is going to fly after launch," he said.
The projected decline in Russian strategic arms capability in the years ahead was documented in a secret report recently sent to the Duma by First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov, a former top Soviet-era military-industrial planner who has pushed for ratification of START II.
According to two sources who asked not to be identified, Maslyukov estimated in his report that, because of obsolescence and other factors, Russia may be able to field only 800 to 900 nuclear warheads seven years from now. Such predictions are highly reflective of the state of the economy, but Maslyukov's estimates appear to fall well below the levels envisioned by a Kremlin strategic weapons review Yeltsin approved last July.
Maslyukov's views are believed to have carried weight with Communist legislators who previously were leading opponents of the treaty. "Maslyukov said many times and continues to say that Russia has no choice and parliament should ratify, because in 10 years the current Russian missiles will die," said his spokesman, Anton Surikov.
WOULD SPEEDY START TWO RATIFICATION BRING MORE AID MONEY?
By Floriana Fossato, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
MOSCOW: - What do Russia's mysterious anti-crisis plan and the START-Two arms reduction treaty have in common? Apparently a lot, according to the Russian government. At least that is what the Russian media are reporting today, following yesterday's State Duma session that was closed to the press.
Cabinet members reportedly gave deputies an overview of the state of Russia's economy and of its prospects for the future. The cabinet, led by Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, won the deputies' partial support for an anti-crisis program and a draft budget for next year -- something that previous governments were never able to achieve without a fight.
Government ministers also managed to produce some signs of activity on the long-stalled START-Two treaty with the United States.
Primakov recently called on parliamentary leaders to finally ratify the treaty -- and his ministers yesterday repeated the call, reportedly adding new economic reasons to military ones.
Deputies quoted by Russian news agencies said government ministers -- particularly First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov -- strongly lobbied for ratification of the treaty.
Accounts of the closed session provided by Duma members indicated that Maslyukov hinted that a quick ratification of START Two would help Moscow's quest for Western financial help, especially in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Maslyukov has so far failed to win the release of a much-needed $4.3 billion tranche of an IMF-led $22.6 billion package of loans. The IMF approved the package in the summer, but froze it when it appeared clear that Russia would not be able to meet obligations under the deal. IMF officials are waiting for Russia's draft 1999 budget to measure its commitment to stick to a tight economic policy.
Alexander Shokhin, leader of the centrist "Our Home Is Russia" faction said "there was no direct link" between the debate on the draft budget and START Two. But he added that "many lawmakers made exactly that conclusion from the way it was presented."
Russian newspapers came to the same conclusion. The daily "Segodnya" wrote today that good news on the progress of the ratification process would help Primakov's case for more financial aid in a coming meeting with U.S. President Bill Clinton.
Primakov is scheduled to meet Clinton during an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum meeting in Kuala Lumpur next week.
START Two was signed in 1993, and the U.S. Senate ratified the treaty in 1996. However, on the Russian side, Communists and nationalists dominating the Duma have so far resisted ratification. They claim that trimming strategic weapons would harm Russia's security, particularly as NATO is expanding. They also argue that Russia cannot afford the costs of dismantling its arsenal.
START Two slashes the two countries' Cold War nuclear arsenals by up to two-thirds to no more than 3,500 warheads each by 2007.
The daily "Kommersant" quoted Maslyukov, who is seen as close to industries in Russia's military-industrial complex, as telling deputies that Russia's nuclear shield would remain in place, if Russia goes ahead with building a new Topol-M missile. This missile, known to NATO as the SS-27 and not included in START II, would replace some of the aging rockets to be scrapped under the treaty. Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov said after yesterday's session that "these were essentially the last parliamentary hearings" on the issue. He told journalists ratification of the treaty is no longer a strategic question, but a purely economic one.
Seleznyov said a vote on the issue would be scheduled as soon as the cash-strapped Primakov government provides concrete figures on how much the treaty would cost Russia.
Some deputies in the State Duma say there is as yet no majority in favor of ratifying the treaty. Seleznyov's deputy, Vladimir Ryzhkov, agreed, but added that "there is essential progress on this question". He said that four parliamentary committees would prepare all necessary documentation on START Two over the next 10 days, together with proposals for further action.
Today, Shokhin of the "Our Home Is Russia" faction said the Duma may vote on an amended version of the START Two ratification law as early as this month.
Home Page