5 April 2002
Russia Surrounded with US Military Bases
Mikhail Khodarenok
Source: Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye No. 10, 2002.

In spite of Moscow's really emotional protests, the United States and NATO, which have now established a bridge-head in Central Asia, continue to expand their military presence on former Soviet territory. The geo-political importance of some CIS countries is too great during the forthcoming re-alignment of the South-West Asian and Mideastern balance of forces. (..)

The Central Asian heart-land has never seen such a multi- national US-European troop contingent ever since the epic expeditions of Alexander the Great. A tactical group of the third British mechanized division (400 soldiers, all told) is now stationed in Kabul. A tactical group of a German airborne brigade numbering 200 soldiers is also located there. Add to this units of an Italian infantry regiment (100 soldiers), a 300-strong French armored-cavalry regiment, a Spanish military unit numbering 50 soldiers, a joint 150-strong German-Dutch unit, as well as up to 300 US Marines. Apart from that, US and NATO military units are stationed in Kandahar. The US Army's 101-st air-assault division has contributed 1,000 soldiers. A 1,500-strong expeditionary USMC (United States Marine Corps) battalion is also staying there. Moreover, 100 British and 300 Canadian soldiers are stationed in Kandahar. 100 soldiers serving with US special forces have settled down in Herat; yet another 200-strong American SWAT (Special Weapons and Tactics) unit is based in Shindand. Meanwhile 400 soldiers from the US Army's 10th light-infantry division, as well as a 600-strong battalion of British Marines, are stationed in Baghram. All in all, ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) in Afghanistan comprises the following national troop contingents -- Great Britain, 2,000 soldiers; France, 500 soldiers; Germany, 900 soldiers; Norway, 100 soldiers; Italy, 100 soldiers; Turkey, 200 soldiers; Denmark, 200 soldiers; Jordan, 500 soldiers. As of today, about 12,000 soldiers, including 8,000 Americans and about 1,000 Canadians, are involved in the Afghan counter-terrorist operation.

US and NATO military installations on the territory of former Soviet Central Asian republics are instrumental in providing logistics support for multi-national forces and their operations. As is known, the United States and NATO have reliably asserted themselves at Uzbek, Kirghiz and Tajik bases, i.e. Manas (Bishkek), Karshi, Kulyab, Kokaidy and Termez. All these airfields were to have been used for re-supply missions, for transporting humanitarian relief aid and for deploying search- and-rescue units. However, the first few French Mirage-2000 fighters have landed in Manas not so long ago. Until then, reconnaissance aircraft, including Predator drones, used to operate rather actively from all bases in the interests of the US-NATO air-force formation being used against Al-Qaeda units. Moreover, ranger units, AWACS-type aircraft, psychological- warfare and reconnaissance planes were deployed there. (..)

Few obstacles impede now the conversion of former Soviet military bases into full- fledged Western outposts. Among other things, the stockpiling of aircraft fuel and weapons is seen as the most labor-consuming process, which requires more time to complete than all other processes. Nonetheless, all local airfields could be used for sustaining the most determined attacks, once this process is complete.

It should be emphasized that Central Asian countries themselves consider US military presence quite profitable. The configuration of their borders, which had been arbitrarily drawn by the Bolsheviks, is always fraught with the danger of bloody inter-ethnic wars, which would inevitably entail the uncontrollable massacre of civilians, causing a multitude of people to flee their native parts. The latter would lead to absolutely unpredictable consequences. Besides, not a single post-Soviet republic has sufficiently powerful armed forces capable of rectifying the hypothetically unfavorable regional situation. (..) Consequently, Central Asia simply can't do today without a powerful "sergeant of the relief," or "neighborhood cop." Therefore one can safely say that US-NATO military presence is perceived as a regional blessing and a guarantee of sorts against terrible blood-baths in the struggle to control land, water and other natural resources. (..)

Quite possibly, after gaining a foot-hold in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kirghizia, the United States will be sorely tempted to spread its military presence over Kazakhstan, which looms over the whole of Central Asia like some kind of a tremendous horse-shoe. The US side will, most likely, establish control over former Soviet air-force bases in Taldy-Kurgan, Zhangiz-Tobe, Semipalatinsk, Zhana-Semei and the Alma-Ata airfield junction (i.e. the south-eastern axis), for openers. (..)

A paradoxical and hitherto unthinkable situation can shape up, when Russian military installations in Kazakhstan, i.e. an early-warning radio-technical facility on cape Gulshad (Lake Balkhash), the Saryshagan ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) testing range, as well as state-run testing range No. 5 in Baikonur, find themselves surrounded with NATO military bases. Moreover, it can't be excluded that Russia might have to coordinate all military shipments to these facilities with both local authorities, as well as US and NATO representatives. (..)

Right now, a relatively small US troop contingent is stationed in Georgia. Technically speaking, US servicemen would be expected to render military-technical assistance in organizing several Georgian SWAT (Special Weapons and Tactics) battalions. Tbilisi subsequently intends to use such units for fighting terrorist groups and in order to enhance Georgia's territorial integrity. (..)

It's therefore hardly surprising that the Georgian infrastructure will be used by the United States and NATO, which continue their crusade against international terrorism at this stage. Geo-politically Georgia plays the part of a bridge for the transit of Central Asian crude oil and other mineral resources. Consequently, the leadership of this young independent republic can obtain numerous advantages as a result of its foreign- political maneuvers. Moreover, one should not under-estimate Georgia's territory as a convenient bridge-head for waging a war against Iran and Iraq. Incidentally, the United States has already announced its decision to fight such a war rather loudly. Therefore possible US control over this Trans-Caucasian republic would apparently benefit Tbilisi and Washington alike.

The Georgian leadership's aspirations therefore tally with the US diversification theory, which implies that Kazakh and Central Asian natural resources should be delivered along different routes. Georgia is therefore becoming a natural US ally. Consequently, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that US Air Force and NATO bases will be deployed in Georgian territory soon after the arrival of first several hundred US servicemen. Such bases might well appear at former Soviet airfields, which had belonged to the former Soviet 34-th air army and the USSR's air-defense force -- Marneuli, Vaziani, Senaki (Mikha Tskhakaya) and Gudauta. After that, Turkish military units might well be deployed there; by the way, Ankara has already hinted that this is theoretically possible. There is no doubting the fact that the fate of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be predetermined, after this happens. In that case, Moscow, which has repeatedly advocated Georgian territorial integrity, and which boasts a limited military potential, would merely be able to observe the outcome of a brief conflict. (..)

Azerbaijan, which borders on Iran, is regarded as a convenient air-force base for tactical US and NATO warplanes, that is, if Washington and Brussels decide to go ahead with a possible counter-terrorist operation, attacking Iran in the process. As of today, Washington considers Iran to be the bulwark of international terrorism. In this case former Soviet first-category air-force bases in Kyurdamir and Nasosnaya (Pumping Station) will prove to be a highly valuable asset for the United States. Surely enough, their current state leaves a lot to be desired. However, the US side, which boasts tremendous resources, can upgrade these two bases in no time at all. If necessary, the United States and NATO could also use the international airport in Baku. However, all these airfields can accommodate no more than 90-100 tactical aircraft, reconnaissance planes and flying tankers. Nonetheless, even this number is enough to conduct limited air strikes and to seriously threaten theoretical enemies from the northern axis. (..) As a reward for possible collaboration Azerbaijan may be offered substantial US and NATO support in settling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. (..)

It's becoming absolutely clear nowadays that many of the Russian leadership's extremely costly and painstaking projects had been false from the very outset, thereby leading us into a blind alley. Frankly speaking, the most far-sighted Russian analysts had warned about this back in the early 1990s. Quite possibly, the list of such projects includes the collective CIS peace-keeping forces, which have virtually become redundant today, as well as the protection of the CIS external perimeter. Russian society apparently doesn't know that the latter idea has also lost its topicality; nonetheless, it had been the subject of heated debates, with the Russian treasury spending a lot of money on this project. The epoch of open borders within the CIS is also nearing its completion, upon benefiting most of our neighbors, rather than Russia itself. In fact, Russia is engulfed by millions upon millions of illegal migrants.

In the obtaining situation, the United States has obtained more benefits than all other countries, virtually gaining access to the immense regional natural resources. (..) Washington acquires powerful leverage for influencing subsequent Russian political aspirations in line with any possible scenario, thus reducing Moscow's maneuvering room on the global political scene still further. Quite possibly, this constitutes the main result of America's penetration into this hitherto walled-in strategic region. (..) Nonetheless, Moscow is so far unable to clearly formulate the relevant political goal of countering expanded US and NATO influence on CIS countries. (..)