By Pierre Simonitsch Geneva, Frankfurter Rundschau
Russia is apparently ready to cut back the number of its strategic nuclear warheads from a current figure of almost 4,000 to 1,500, provided the United States drop its plans for a national missile-defence system.
Russian sources says the offer came after secret talks between the two powers were held in Geneva. The talks in the Swiss city were part of preparations by John Holum, the director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and a senior official at the Russian Foreign Ministry, Yuri Kapralov, ahead of a visit by US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Moscow in the coming week where she is due to meet her Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov.
Both delegations agreed to keep silent on the content of their three days of negotiations. Nevertheless, the Frankfurter Rundschau has been told by a reliable source that Russia is not adverse to further disarmament, suggesting that Acting President Vladimir Putin is willing to have the Duma (parliament) ratify agreement to the Start II accord, signed with the US in 1993 with the aim of reducing strategic weapons.
Under the terms of Start II, the United States and Russia agree to an upper limit of around 3,500 missiles. At the height of the arms race, both countries each had 11,000 nuclear warheads fitted to intercontinental missiles.
Although only the US has so far ratified the treaty, the planned phase-out has already begun on both sides. By its own admission, Russia currently has 3,385 land-based nuclear warheads in addition to 26 nuclear-powered submarines and around 100 nuclear-laden long-distance bombers.
Tying in for the main with Washington's ideas, the Kremlin is now proposing discussions be held soon on further cuts (to be called Start III), involving 1,500 warheads on both sides. However, the US is still refusing to accept Moscow's demand that it cast aside its ambitious plans for its National Missile Defence system (NMD). America insists that NMD is not targetted at Russia or China, but is purely a defence against "rogue nations" which it says it can attack with a small number of simple missiles. The NMD system merely involves the positioning of around 100 "kill vehicles" designed to destroy incoming missiles which, the Pentagon says, will not endanger the strategic balance with Russia.
But according to the Russian point of view, the American plans are in direct contravention of Article One of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. Under the treaty, signed in 1972, America and the Soviet Union agreed on mutual limits to missile-defence systems to ensure a measure of stability.
In Geneva, Kapralov now blames the United States for putting into doubt the previous working basis and the principle of arms reductions.
If the US does realise its national missile-defence system, it would not only make the Start III proposals pointless but would also endanger the implementation of Start I and Start II. Russia might then see itself forced to increase its nuclear potential.
Last week, US plans received a setback when tests carried out under realistic conditions failed to down an incoming missile. The Clinton administration wants to spend 12.5 billion dollars on the project and will decide in the summer whether the NMD system will be built. Russia's answer to the NMD is its new generation of missiles, called Topol-M, which are apparently capable of evading all feasible missile defences.
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