15 November 2000
Putin ready to slash Russia's nuclear arsenal
FROM MICHAEL BINYON IN MOSCOW, THE TIMES

PRESIDENT Putin is expected to announce proposals for sweeping cuts to Russian and American nuclear arsenals when he meets President Clinton at an Asian summit in Brunei today.

The Russian leader said yesterday, during a visit to Mongolia, that his offer to slash nuclear weapons to 1,500 by 2008 was aimed at keeping alive arms control, despite the uncertainty in the United States over who would be taking over in the White House.

"It was done deliberately to stress that, in spite of all the processes of a domestic political nature which are currently under way in the United States, our contacts with our American partners do not stop," Mr Putin said.

The offer of reductions to nuclear weapons is part of an overall reform of the military that would involve sweeping cuts to the size of the Armed Forces to make them smaller, more professional and better equipped. Russia's Security Council announced last week that Moscow is to cut 600,000 men from the Armed Forces, reducing the total of 3.1 million military and civilian personnel by about a fifth.

Mr Putin's cuts to nuclear forces, which he said he was ready to reduce even below the 1,500 ceiling, would be one of the biggest reductions Russia has seen in its Armed Forces in peacetime.

At present, Russia has up to 7,000 nuclear weapons, compared to the United States's arsenal of 7,500. Under the terms of the Start II agreement, which was ratified by the Russian parliament in April, both sides would halve their forces to 3,500 each. Start III envisages further cuts to about 2,500.

Russia's offer to reduce its nuclear forces further reflects both the the catastrophic collapse of military morale, equipment and readiness and deep budget cuts that rule out the high level of expenditure of Soviet days. Mr Putin is hoping to reach agreement with Mr Clinton in Brunei on a rapid resumption of arms talks that would allow both sides to reduce their nuclear warheads far below the totals allowed by the Start II and Start III treaties.

In return Russia appears ready to concede that the Americans are likely to go ahead with some form of National Missile Defence, whoever succeeds Mr Clinton in the White House.

Mr Putin has backed military commanders calling for a huge reduction in Russia's nuclear missile as a way of boosting expenditure on conventional weapons. This has long been fiercely opposed by Marshal Igor Sergeyev, the Defence Minister and a former commander of the strategic rocket force, who spent up to 80 per cent of the military budget on maintaining and upgrading nuclear missiles. Mr Putin has avoided an outright clash with his Defence Minister by stretching the nuclear reductions out until 2008, by which time Marshal Sergeyev will have retired.

The shift was powerfully reinforced, however, by the sinking of the Kursk, which dramatically underlined the desperate state of the Russian Navy and other services, which are left with almost no money for maintenance, fuel, weapons or even to buy enough food for soldiers and sailors.

The cuts in conventional manpower are more clearly aimed at domestic opinion, which has been scandalised by the dilapidated state of the army and the military's foot-dragging over reform.

13 November 2000
Putin Proposes Deeper Nuclear Cuts
By Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press Writer

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001113/aponline174812_000.htm

MOSCOW -- In a bold new arms control gambit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that Russia and the United States could make drastic cuts in their nuclear arsenals far beyond existing proposals. Putin, who is pushing to downsize a huge and inefficient military that Russia can no longer afford, said the former Cold War opponents need not stop at the 1,500-warhead limit Russia has been advocating up until now. He did not propose any specific numbers.

"It's not the limit. We are ready to consider lower levels in the future," he said in a statement issued by the Kremlin. "We don't see reasons which would hamper further deep cuts in strategic offensive weapons. There should be no pause in nuclear disarmament." Putin said the 1,500 level could be achieved by 2008, but only if the United States does not go ahead with a national missile defense system that Russia says would undermine nuclear deterrence.

In Washington, a State Department spokesman, Philip Reeker, said "we read with interest" Putin's statement, but declined to say if the Clinton administration was ready to negotiate further cutbacks with the Russians.

"We certainly share the Russian interest in lower levels of strategic nuclear arms," Reeker said. "That's something we've worked on for quite some time now and we want to proceed in a manner that will also allow us to address new threats."

After years of delay, Russia's parliament in April ratified the START II arms reduction treaty, which would roughly halve arsenals to about 3,500 warheads each. As soon as the treaty goes into effect, the sides have tentatively agreed to go ahead with a START III treaty that envisages further cuts, to 2,000 to 2,500 warheads.

Analysts say the United States has roughly 7,500 nuclear weapons, while Russia has between 6,000 and 7,000. START II has not taken effect because the Russian parliament added conditions not yet ratified by the U.S. Senate.

The cash-strapped Russian government is under intense pressure to cut military spending, which makes up one third of the federal budget even though Russia spends only about $5.1 billion on defense - compared with annual U.S. defense spending of around $290 billion.

Last week, Putin approved a military reform plan that would cut the 3 million uniformed and civilian personnel in the overall military establishment by about 600,000, or about 20 percent.

Most experts believe that Russia wants deep nuclear cuts because it can't afford to keep up its forces even at START II levels and wants to preserve nuclear equality with the United States. Russia has only been able to build a handful of nuclear missiles in recent years, far too few to replace the hundreds of weapons approaching the end of their service lives.

"It's very important for Russia to persuade the United States to also cut its arsenals, to avoid a unilateral disarmament," said Dmitry Trenin, an analyst for the Carnegie Endowment.

Trenin said that Russia was likely to agree to some form of U.S. missile defense by agreeing to the changes in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic missile treaty which restricts such systems. That's because Russia fears it doesn't have the money to respond if the United States unilaterally backs out of the ABM treaty.

"Russia will have to choose between some kind of agreement with the United States and the absence of one, which would put Russia in a most desperate political and economic situation," Trenin said.

U.S. negotiators have pressed for ABM changes to allow a limited missile defense against attacks from so-called "rogue states" such as North Korea. Washington says its defense system would not be able to blunt a Russian attack.

Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, the chief of Russian Strategic Missile Forces, acknowledged Monday that Russia faced an uphill battle to preserve the ABM treaty. He hinted at a compromise, saying that the two countries could consider counting both defensive, as well as offensive weapons as part of their strategic arsenals.

"In that case, a country willing to increase one part, will have to cut another," he said, according to the Interfax news agency. Putin, however, spoke strongly against any changes in the ABM.

"They tell us that the situation in the world has considerably changed during the last three decades. ... The situation has indeed changed, but not to a degree allowing us to break the existing system of strategic stability by emasculating the ABM," Putin said.

He said recent attempts by the United States to negotiate with North Korea on limiting its missile program showed threats could be addressed by "political and diplomatic means, without leaving the ABM treaty."

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