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In July 1998, Britain's Labour government announced several decisions resulting from its Strategic Defence Review:
The Atomic Weapons Establishment is now managed by an industrial consortium consisting of Lockheed Martin, Serco Limited, and British Nuclear Fuels, which took over on April 1, 2000, under a 10-year, 2.2-billion-pound contract.
On April 1, 1999, the Chief of Defence Logistics assumed overall responsibility for the routine movement of nuclear weapons within the United Kingdom. Day-to-day duties are gradually being transferred from RAF personnel to the Ministry of Defence Police, with support from AWE civilians and the Royal Marines. The process will be completed by March 31, 2002.
Until recently, the Royal Air Force operated eight squadrons of dual-capable Tornado GR.1/1A aircraft. But with the withdrawal of the last remaining WE177 bombs at the end of March 1998, the Tornadoes' nuclear role was terminated, bringing to an end the four-decade-long history of RAF aircraft carrying nuclear weapons. By the end of August 1998, the remaining WE177 bombs had been dismantled.
The RAF base at Bruggen, Germany, is scheduled to be closed, and by the end of 2001 approximately 40 Tornadoes now at the base will be reassigned to bases at Lossiemouth, Scotland, and Marham, England.
Britain built and deployed four Resolution-class SSBNs, commonly called Polaris submarines after the missiles they carried. The first, the Resolution, went on patrol in mid-June 1968, and the last - the Revenge - in September 1970. The four boats conducted a total of 229 patrols over a 28-year period. The Revenge was retired on May 25, 1992, after 56 patrols. The Resolution was decommissioned on October 22, 1994, after 61 patrols. The Renown was decommissioned on February 24, 1996, after 52 patrols, and the Repulse was withdrawn from service on August 28, 1996, after 60 patrols. Presumably, the Chevaline warheads they carried have been dismantled.
The first submarine of Britain's new class, the Vanguard, began its initial patrol in December 1994. The second, the Victorious, entered service in December 1995. The third, the Vigilant, was launched in October 1995 and entered service in the fall of 1998. The fourth and final boat of the class, the Vengeance, was launched on September 19, 1998, and was commissioned on November 27, 1999, at the Marconi-Marine Shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness. It will enter service as part of the First Submarine Squadron, and go on patrol in late 2000 or early 2001. The submarine has a total complement of 205 men, which includes a ship's company of about 130. The current estimated cost of the program is $18.8 billion.
Each Vanguard-class SSBN carries 16 U.S.-produced Trident II D-5 SLBMs. Technically, there are no specifically American or British Trident IIs. A pool of SLBMs are kept at the Strategic Weapons Facility Atlantic at the Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia. Britain has title to 58, but does not actually own them. A missile that is deployed on a U.S. SSBN may at a later date deploy on a British boat, or vice versa.
How many warheads will there be in the future British stockpile? Several factors go into the calculation. We assume that Britain will produce enough warheads for only three boatloads of missiles, a practice it followed with Polaris. As was stated in the Strategic Defence Review, there will be "fewer than 200 operationally available warheads." If all four boats were fully loaded (MIRVed with three warheads) that would total 192. But the purchase of only 58 missiles means there will not be a full complement of missiles for all four boats. The government also stated that normally only one SSBN will be on patrol, with the other three in various states of readiness.
A further consideration is the "substrategic" mission. A Ministry of Defence official described a substrategic strike as "the limited and highly selective use of nuclear weapons in a manner that fell demonstrably short of a strategic strike, but with a sufficient level of violence to convince an aggressor who had already miscalculated our resolve and attacked us that he should halt his aggression and withdraw or face the prospect of a devastating strategic strike."
This substrategic mission began with Victorious and "will become fully robust when Vigilant enters service," according to the Ministry of Defence's 1996 White Paper. If this has remained the policy, then some Trident II SLBMs already have a single warhead and are assigned targets once covered by WE177 gravity bombs. For example, when the Vigilant is on patrol, 10, 12, or 14 of its SLBMs may carry up to three warheads per missile, but the other two, four, or six missiles may be armed with just one warhead. There is also some flexibility in the choice of yield of the Trident warhead. (Choosing to detonate the unboosted primary only could produce a yield of a few kilotons.) With dual missions, an SSBN would have approximately 36-44 warheads on board during patrol.
We estimate that the future British stockpile for the SSBN fleet will be around 160 warheads. With an additional 15 percent for spares, we estimate the total British stockpile to be approximately 185 warheads. At any given time, the sole SSBN on patrol might carry about 40 warheads. The second and third SSBNs could put to sea fairly rapidly with a similar loading, while the fourth might take longer due to the cycle of overhaul and maintenance.
Ten nuclear-powered attack submarines of the Trafalgar-class and the Swiftsure-class are scheduled to receive upgrades to carry U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles by 2008. The first submarine to be upgraded, the Splendid, fired Tomahawk missiles during Operation Allied Force. The upgrade of a second submarine, the Triumph, was completed by the end of 1999.
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