Further progress on freezing development of long-range ballistic missiles in North Korea could reduce pressure on the next U.S. Administration to proceed with a National Missile Defense system, a high U.S. official told a panel at the State of the World Forum in New York September 7.

But a New Agenda spokesperson warned of "ominous" developments ahead with the possible overturning of the framework for nuclear arms reductions as a result of the militarization of outer space.

The panel, convened by the Middle Powers Initiative, examined the 13 commitments made by all 187 States Parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at the 2000 Review.

The prospect for the fulfilment of these commitments before the 2005 Review were gloomy.

Gary Samore, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Non-Proliferation and Export Controls, U.S. National Security Council, said some progress in START III is possible, but not likely enough to draw the U.K., France and China into comprehensive negotiations.

He foresaw the CTBT being blocked by India even if the U.S. ratifies the treaty. A ban on the production of fissile material remains unlikely, though reductions in U.S. and Russian stocks will continue. The U.S. is prepared to work with Russia on an international effort to develop nuclear power without reliance on weapons-grade material.

Regional issues are particularly discouraging, Mr. Samore said. The Iraq stand-off continues. The danger of nuclear weapons development in Iraq is propelling Iran in the nuclear field and could lead to a crisis with the IAEA. Absent a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement, Israel will stand outside the NPT. In South Asia, India is committed to developing its long-range nuclear capabilities, with Pakistan following suit, and there is no chance either India or Pakistan will join the NPT.

North Korea, he added, offers the most optimistic scenario, since it is likely to maintain its current freeze on the production of plutonium. With "hard work and good luck," a curtailment on the development of long-range ballistic missiles "could reduce pressure on the next U.S. Administration for an NMD."

But overall, Mr. Samore concluded, the NPT community is not likely to fulfill all the 13 commitments over the next five years.

Darach MacFhionnbhairr, head of the Government of Ireland's Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Department, said the 13 steps are a "road map" leading to a nuclear weapon-free world and are based on the "unequivocal commitment to accomplish the total elimination of nuclear weapons." This commitment cannot be allowed to be held hostage to progress in other fields of disarmament.

He said the accomplishment of NPT 2000 was a step in the globalization if not the democratization of the diplomacy of international security. The onus is now on the nuclear weapon states and their allies to give concrete expression through negotiation and action to their commitments. The 13 steps, taken together, will lead to a global ban on nuclear weapons.

This approach is different than one definitive negotiation for a single instrument to ban nuclear weapons. NPT 2000 had chosen the 13-step approach as "the best last chance" to get a global ban. "Inaction on our part will allow developments that fast outstrip our capacity to hold together a non-proliferation regime."

Dr. MacFhionnbhairr hailed the many developments leading up to NPT 2000, particularly the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice, the Canberra Commission, and the sustained efforts of NGOs. He cited the Middle Powers Initiative "as a model in this connection."

It was too early to expect results from NPT 2000. "Yet we can have no illusions that there has been any halo effect arising out of the success of NPT 2000."

Opening the panel, Senator Douglas Roche, MPI Chairman, drew attention to new statements that buttressed NPT 2000.

• The Millennium Declaration of the U.N. General Assembly Summit resolved: "To strive for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction, particularly nuclear weapons and to keep all options open for achieving this aim, including the possibility of convening an international conference to identify ways of eliminating nuclear dangers."

• The Millennium World Peace Summit of Religious and Spiritual Leaders, meeting the week before the U.N. Summit, declared its commitment and determination: "To join with the United Nations in the call for all nation states to work for the universal abolition of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction for the safety and security of life on this planet."

• At the opening of the State of the World Millennium Forum, Prime Minister Helen Clark of New Zealand said: "We do believe that the NPT Review Conference broke new ground. The outcome exceeded expectations, invigorating the NPT at a time when pervasive pessimism about the nuclear disarmament agenda threatened to weaken the Treaty's credibility and play into the hands of the nuclear proliferators."