By Alexander Pikayev, Carnegie Moscow Center, Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project

On Monday, April 17, the Russian Duma's Committees on International Affairs and Defense discussed ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The meetings were attended by officials from key Russian agencies, including Minister of Atomic Energy Yevgeni Adamov, who lobbied the deputies to approve the agreement. After debates, both committees recommended ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty on Friday, April 21. Before being considered by the full Duma, this recommendation must be approved during Tuesday's meeting of the Council of the Duma -- a consultative body of parliamentary leaders that determines the House agenda.

The CTBT actions come just after the Duma ratified the START-II treaty -- which had been shelved for more than seven years -- with a comfortable majority of votes (288 to 131) on April 14. By noon on Monday, April 17, all necessary ratification papers had already been delivered to the Federation Council -- the upper house of the Federal Assembly (the Russian Parliament). This is quite unprecedented speed, particularly because the treaty was only approved late Friday afternoon. It is widely expected that the Treaty will be passed by the Federation Council on April 19 without any significant problems.

Although chances for passage by the end of the week remain reasonably high, observers caution that CTBT ratification should not be taken for granted. A special meeting of the National Security Council was held for Duma leaders on April 10 to promote START-II ratification. A similar meeting has not been held for the CTBT. Secondly, START-II was endorsed by Russia's Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, who personally visited political parties to promote the treaty. While the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs both support the CTBT, their promotion efforts have not reached the same level. Thirdly, the Kremlin's efforts to promote the legislation might suffer this week due to the absence of Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin, who will return from visits to Britain and Ukraine on Wednesday or Thursday.

Two important events could affect the prospects for CTBT ratification on Friday. First, it is possible that the Council might call for further hearings on Thursday, April 20 (original hearings took place on March 14). Treaty opponents could view these additional hearings as a tool to delay ratification, as they did in the case of START-II.

Another important event will be the decisions of two leftist Duma parties -- the Communists and Agro-industrialists -- to support or oppose the treaty. On Monday, their representatives abstained from voting during committee meetings, explaining that their stance required further deliberation. During similar START-II-related gatherings a week ago, those two groups pitted themselves against START-II ratification. Their current indecision might be a positive omen for the CTBT. If these two groups do not oppose the agreement, opposition to it in the Duma would almost disappear.

If the Duma fails to ratify the CTBT on Friday, it could only resume consideration of the pact after its recess, which begins on April 24 and will continue until mid-May. But ratification would be unlikely to happen earlier in any event. The Federation Council typically convenes on the third Wednesday of every month. Unless a special session is called, the Council would not convene anyway until May 17 and thus could not consider the treaty earlier.